Polework Clinic with Tracey Fox @Appleton Grange
Tuesday 19 November 2024
The last leg of the U.S Triple Crown is fast approaching, with the 2024 Belmont Stakes taking place on Saturday, 8th May. The blue-chip race, which will be held in Saratoga while its usual home undergoes renovations, always delivers in terms of drama and action. 2024 should be no different, even if there is no chance of coronating a Triple Crown winner this time. Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan went agonisingly close in the Preakness Stakes, coming 2nd behind Seize the Grey.
Nonetheless, a very strong line-up is expected to take part in the Belmont Stakes, which has a post-time of 6.41pm in the US (11.40pm in the UK). Below, we provide a quick guide to everything you need to know about the historic race:
We will have to wait for the morning line odds, but we do have an inkling of what the Belmont Stakes betting markets will look like, not least because several contenders from the previous two legs of the Triple Crown will be in action. The field is usually somewhere in the low teens (much less than the Kentucky Derby), but the following horses should make an impact:
Fierceness is an interesting candidate. He shared the favourite status for the Kentucky Derby with many bookmakers, but he flopped in that race, coming 15th out of 20 runners. That said, there is a quality about him that cannot be overlooked, and one gets the feeling that master trainer Todd Pletcher can pull it out of the bag.
Like Fierceness, Sierra Leone was tipped as a big favourite for the Kentucky Derby. Unlike his rival, Sierra Leone performed well, finishing a close second when beaten by a nose on the line by Mystik Dan. One thing that characterises Sierra Leone is ultra-consistency; he has never finished outside the top 2 in a race. That information will be useful for each-way bettors.
Can you fluke a Kentucky Derby win and runner-up spot a few weeks later in the Preakness? Probably not. However, there is a reluctance from bookmakers to insist that Mystik Dan is the real deal. At 20/1, he wasn’t the biggest shock winner of the Kentucky Derby, but it was still something of a surprise. He was much shorter than that for the Preakness, and it’s going to be interesting to see where the bookies put him on Saturday.
Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey is the other candidate to take two legs of the Triple Crown, and he may just turn out to be the value bet. Like Mystik Dan, he hadn’t pulled up many trees in his prep races this season, but there is plenty to like about him, and he may offer some each-way value.
The move to Saratoga Racecourse is an important one. Belmont Park has a different track surface, and Saratoga lacks the large, sweeping turns that the former is famous for. The race is also going to be shortened from 12 furlongs to 10 to accommodate the smaller track at Saratoga. It’s an issue for trainers and jockeys, but it’s also a conundrum for punters – many of the betting calculations for what makes a Belmont Stakes winner will have to be adjusted. Saratoga’s weather and track conditions might also come into play in how it impacts the horses' performance.
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